Libertador FC 2–2 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Libertador FC

FT

2 – 2

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

3/4/2020

Segunda División · Apertura - 3Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Libertador FC43%

×Draw27%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertador FCExpected goals in this matchDinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.09

Libertador FC

1.35

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.09

Libertador FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 84 away

1.30

creates per match

0.99

1.19

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Libertador FC

1.30

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

0.99

allows per match

Libertador FC

1.19

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw

70%

Libertador FC or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

73%

Draw or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

57%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals

74%

Libertador FC 2+ goals

39%

Libertador FC 3+ goals

15%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals

30%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 0.99 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Libertador FC scores more

43%

level

27%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more

30%

Libertador FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff