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Libertador FC vs CA Furrial — Segunda División 2018

Libertador FC
Libertador FC
PST
19:30
CA Furrial
CA Furrial
5/30/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Libertador FC47%
×Draw26%
CA Furrial27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertador FC
1.47
CA Furrial
1.05

Libertador FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 33 away

creates per match

Libertador FC
1.30
CA Furrial
0.91

allows per match

Libertador FC
1.19
CA Furrial
1.64

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par
CA Furrial+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

CA Furrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw
73%
Libertador FC or CA Furrial
74%
Draw or CA Furrial
53%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+
23%
CA Furrial wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals
77%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
43%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
18%
CA Furrial 1+ goals
65%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
28%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)
63%
CA Furrial (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

CA Furrial away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + CA Furrial defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.47

CA Furrial attack 0.91 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Libertador FC scores more
47%
level
26%
CA Furrial scores more
27%

Libertador FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Libertador FC host CA Furrial

May 30, 2021: Libertador FC take on CA Furrial in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Libertador FC host CA Furrial at Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.