Libertad vs Universidad Catolica

Libertad

Preview

20:00

Universidad Catolica

8/9/2026

Liga Pro · Round 24Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Big match

37%

Universidad Catolica

model favours

36%27%37%

73% of Libertad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Libertad36%

×Draw27%

Universidad Catolica37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LibertadExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.28

Libertad

1.27

Universidad Catolica

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 132 away

1.31

creates per match

1.42

1.15

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Libertad

1.31

Universidad Catolica

1.42

allows per match

Libertad

1.15

Universidad Catolica

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Libertad or draw

63%

Libertad or Universidad Catolica

73%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

64%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+

16%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals

72%

Libertad 2+ goals

36%

Libertad 3+ goals

14%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

72%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

37%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)

50%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.31 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Libertad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Libertad scores more

36%

level

27%

Universidad Catolica scores more

37%

Universidad Catolica at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Universidad Catolica fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Libertad

Balanced

Universidad Catolica

Possession-dominant

47%Possession61%

75%Pass accuracy84%

11.1Shots14.0

1.27xGBiggest gap1.67

LibertadUniversidad Catolica

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2

Libertad

5

Draws

2

Universidad Catolica

Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 67%

0–21–11–11–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Libertad

LWDLL

Catolica

WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff