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Libertad vs Macara — Liga Pro 2026

Libertad
Libertad
Preview
20:00
Macara
Macara
8/23/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 26Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Big match
41%
Libertad
model favours
41%27%32%

Macara have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Libertad41%
×Draw27%
Macara32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.32
Macara
1.13

Libertad creates 17% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 117 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.31
Macara
1.11

allows per match

Libertad
1.15
Macara
1.33

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
68%
Libertad or Macara
73%
Draw or Macara
59%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
19%
Macara wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
73%
Libertad 2+ goals
38%
Libertad 3+ goals
15%
Macara 1+ goals
68%
Macara 2+ goals
31%
Macara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
56%
Macara (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

Macara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.31 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Macara attack 1.11 + Libertad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Libertad scores more
41%
level
27%
Macara scores more
32%

Libertad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Macara are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Macara score first in only 24% of matches
  • 73% of Libertad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Macara have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 71% of Macara’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Macara’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Libertad
Balanced
Macara
Defensively solid
47%Possession49%
75%Pass accuracy75%
11.1ShotsBiggest gap12.7
1.27xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LibertadMacara

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Libertad
1
Draws
4
Macara
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 20%
0–31–10–10–10–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Libertad
LWDLL
Macara
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Libertad vs Macara — Match Preview

Libertad face Macara on August 23, 2026 in this Liga Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Libertad host Macara at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.