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Libertad vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Libertad
Libertad
Preview
20:00
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
9/13/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 30Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Big match
39%
Independiente del Valle
model favours
34%26%39%

Independiente del Valle have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Libertad34%
×Draw26%
Independiente del Valle39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.24
Independiente del Valle
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 133 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.31
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Libertad
1.15
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
61%
Libertad or Independiente del Valle
74%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
66%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
15%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
71%
Libertad 2+ goals
35%
Libertad 3+ goals
13%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
74%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
39%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
47%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.31 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Libertad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Libertad scores more
34%
level
26%
Independiente del Valle scores more
39%

Independiente del Valle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Independiente del Valle have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 79% of Independiente del Valle’s matches
  • 73% of Libertad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Libertad
Balanced
Independiente del Valle
Possession-dominant
47%Possession60%
75%Pass accuracy87%
11.1Shots15.6
1.27xGBiggest gap2.09
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LibertadIndependiente del Valle

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
Libertad
4
Draws
3
Independiente del Valle
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 56%
3–21–11–31–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Libertad
LWDLL
Valle
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Libertad host Independiente del Valle

September 13, 2026: Libertad take on Independiente del Valle in Liga Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Libertad host Independiente del Valle at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.