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Liberia vs Sierra Leone — Friendlies 2026

Liberia
Liberia
FT
1 – 0
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone
6/4/2017FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Antoinette Tubman Stadium (Monrovia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liberia53%
×Draw25%
Sierra Leone23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liberia
1.61
Sierra Leone
0.96

Liberia creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Liberia
1.00
Sierra Leone
0.54

allows per match

Liberia
1.38
Sierra Leone
2.23

finishing

Liberia+0.00on par
Sierra Leone+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberia ↓

Sierra Leone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Liberia or draw
77%
Liberia or Sierra Leone
75%
Draw or Sierra Leone
47%

Winning margin

Liberia wins by 2+
28%
Sierra Leone wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Liberia 1+ goals
80%
Liberia 2+ goals
48%
Liberia 3+ goals
22%
Sierra Leone 1+ goals
62%
Sierra Leone 2+ goals
25%
Sierra Leone 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Liberia (draw refunded)
70%
Sierra Leone (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Sierra Leone away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberia attack 1.00 + Sierra Leone defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sierra Leone attack 0.54 + Liberia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Liberia scores more
53%
level
25%
Sierra Leone scores more
23%

Liberia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liberia vs Sierra Leone

Liberia beat Sierra Leone 1-0 in Friendlies on June 4, 2017.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium (Monrovia).