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Leyton Orient vs Wigan — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
Preview
15:00
Wigan
Wigan
3/13/2027League OneLeague One · Round 35Brisbane Road
Big match
43%
Leyton Orient
model favours
43%26%31%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leyton Orient43%
×Draw26%
Wigan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.43
Wigan
1.17

Leyton Orient creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.16
Wigan
1.07

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.26
Wigan
1.70

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.07on par
Wigan-0.07on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
69%
Leyton Orient or Wigan
74%
Draw or Wigan
57%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
21%
Wigan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
76%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
42%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
17%
Wigan 1+ goals
69%
Wigan 2+ goals
33%
Wigan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
58%
Wigan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.70 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.16 + Wigan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.43

Wigan attack 1.07 + Leyton Orient defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
43%
level
26%
Wigan scores more
31%

Leyton Orient at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Leyton Orient
Balanced
Wigan
Balanced
52%Possession48%
71%Pass accuracy74%
11.2ShotsBiggest gap10.3
1.09xG1.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Leyton OrientWigan

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Leyton Orient
3
Draws
1
Wigan
Avg goals: 1.2BTTS: 17%
0–02–00–02–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orient
LLWWD
Wigan
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leyton Orient face Wigan (League One)

League One returns with Leyton Orient hosting Wigan. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Leyton Orient host Wigan at Brisbane Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.