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Leyton Orient vs Wigan — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wigan
Wigan
11/25/2023League OneLeague One · Round 19Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Leyton Orient39%
×Draw27%
Wigan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.33
Wigan
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 116 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.31
Wigan
1.32

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.15
Wigan
1.34

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
66%
Leyton Orient or Wigan
73%
Draw or Wigan
61%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
18%
Wigan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
74%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
38%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
15%
Wigan 1+ goals
71%
Wigan 2+ goals
35%
Wigan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
53%
Wigan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 71 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.31 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Wigan attack 1.32 + Leyton Orient defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
39%
level
27%
Wigan scores more
34%

Leyton Orient at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Wigan

Leyton Orient and Wigan drew 1-1 in League One on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.