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Leyton Orient vs Stockport County — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
Preview
14:00
Stockport County
Stockport County
5/1/2027League OneLeague One · Round 45Brisbane Road
Big match
40%
Leyton Orient
model favours
40%26%34%

Both sides lean high-scoring (80% and 80% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Leyton Orient40%
×Draw26%
Stockport County34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.38
Stockport County
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.18
Stockport County
1.24

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.31
Stockport County
1.57

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.01on par
Stockport County-0.17scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Stockport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
66%
Leyton Orient or Stockport County
74%
Draw or Stockport County
60%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
18%
Stockport County wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
75%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
40%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
16%
Stockport County 1+ goals
72%
Stockport County 2+ goals
36%
Stockport County 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
53%
Stockport County (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.18 + Stockport County defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Stockport County attack 1.24 + Leyton Orient defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
40%
level
26%
Stockport County scores more
34%

Leyton Orient at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stockport County’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Leyton Orient
Balanced
Stockport County
Balanced
53%Possession55%
71%Pass accuracy76%
11.3Shots13.0
1.12xGBiggest gap1.37
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Leyton OrientStockport County

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
Leyton Orient
4
Draws
2
Stockport County
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 63%
0–02–21–12–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orient
LLWWD
County
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leyton Orient face Stockport County (League One)

League One returns with Leyton Orient hosting Stockport County. Match starts May 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Leyton Orient host Stockport County at Brisbane Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.