Leyton Orient 2–1 Reading: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Reading

G. Moncur 90'

J. Brown 26'

T. Bindon 35'

10/7/2023

League One · Round 12Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Leyton Orient39%

×Draw25%

Reading36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.40

Leyton Orient

1.47

Reading

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.18

creates per match

1.49

1.31

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.18

Reading

1.49

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.31

Reading

1.76

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.01on par

Reading+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

64%

Leyton Orient or Reading

75%

Draw or Reading

61%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

19%

Reading wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

77%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

43%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

18%

Reading 1+ goals

75%

Reading 2+ goals

41%

Reading 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

52%

Reading (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Reading away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.18 + Reading defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Reading attack 1.49 + Leyton Orient defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

39%

level

25%

Reading scores more

36%

Leyton Orient at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Brown

Leyton Orient · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

Tyler Bindon

26'

J. Brown

30'

G. Moncur← M. Sanders

35'

T. Bindon

61'

Rob Hunt

66'

N. Guinness-Walker← M. Carson

67'

68'

68'

69'

70'

77'

B. Elliott← H. Knibbs

77'

P. Mukairu← O. Azeez

84'

T. Holmes← D. Ballard

90+2'

Solomon Brynn

90+2'

D. Pratley← G. Moncur

90'

G. Moncur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonReading

Overview

71%Possession29%

17Total Shots11

11Corners7

6Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots11

4On Target5

7Off Target3

6Blocked3

14Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

71%Possession29%

467Total Passes191

359Accurate Passes89

77%Pass Accuracy47%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2