Leyton Orient 1–2 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Peterborough

E. Galbraith 66'

E. Mason-Clark 26'

H. Kyprianou 8'

4/1/2024

League One · Round 42Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Leyton Orient44%

×Draw25%

Peterborough31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.27

Leyton Orient

1.55

Peterborough

1.27

Leyton Orient creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.18

creates per match

1.24

1.31

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.18

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.31

Peterborough

1.92

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.01on par

Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

69%

Leyton Orient or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

56%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

22%

Peterborough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

79%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

46%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

20%

Peterborough 1+ goals

72%

Peterborough 2+ goals

36%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

58%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.18 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Leyton Orient defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

44%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

31%

Leyton Orient at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

E. Galbraith

Leyton Orient · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

H. Kyprianou

26'

E. Mason-Clark↳ J. Knight

46'

R. Hunt← T. James

46'

J. Pigott← D. Adu-Adjei

46'

R. Sotiriou← S. Forde

57'

M. Sanders← G. Moncur

66'

E. Galbraith↳ J. Sweeney

69'

J. Randall← D. Ajiboye

69'

M. Mothersille← R. Jones

71'

Ruel Sotiriou

83'

D. Agyei← O. ONeill

90'

J. Clarke-Harris← E. Mason-Clark

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonPeterborough

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots19

7Corners2

18Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots19

3On Target7

3Off Target7

5Blocked5

5Inside Box13

6Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

404Total Passes482

331Accurate Passes391

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1

League One: Leyton Orient 1–2 Peterborough

Peterborough beat Leyton Orient 2-1 in League One on April 1, 2024.

Goals: H. Kyprianou (8'), E. Mason-Clark (26'), E. Galbraith (66').

Peterborough controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Gaughan Group Stadium in London.

Leyton Orient vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Leyton Orient 1–2 Peterborough