Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leyton Orient vs Notts County — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
Preview
15:00
Notts County
Notts County
12/19/2026League OneLeague One · Round 20Brisbane Road
Big match
40%
Leyton Orient
model favours
40%27%33%

Notts County score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Leyton Orient40%
×Draw27%
Notts County33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.29
Notts County
1.15

Leyton Orient creates 12% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 18 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.30
Notts County
1.11

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.18
Notts County
1.28

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
67%
Leyton Orient or Notts County
73%
Draw or Notts County
60%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
18%
Notts County wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
72%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
37%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
14%
Notts County 1+ goals
68%
Notts County 2+ goals
32%
Notts County 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
55%
Notts County (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.30 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Notts County attack 1.11 + Leyton Orient defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
40%
level
27%
Notts County scores more
33%

Leyton Orient at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Orient
LLWWD
County
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leyton Orient host Notts County

December 19, 2026: Leyton Orient take on Notts County in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leyton Orient host Notts County at Brisbane Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.