Leyton Orient 0–0 Northampton: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Northampton

10/15/2022

League Two · Round 15Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Leyton Orient40%

×Draw27%

Northampton33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.19

Leyton Orient

1.32

Northampton

1.19

Leyton Orient creates 11% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 88 away

1.41

creates per match

1.24

1.13

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

67%

Leyton Orient or Northampton

73%

Draw or Northampton

60%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

18%

Northampton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

73%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

38%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

15%

Northampton 1+ goals

70%

Northampton 2+ goals

33%

Northampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

54%

Northampton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Northampton attack 1.24 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

40%

level

27%

Northampton scores more

33%

Leyton Orient at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

D. Happe

Leyton Orient · D

7.7

Match Events

40'

48'

70'

79'

79'

S. McWilliams← M. Leonard

80'

A. Odimayo← H. Lintott

82'

S. Duke-McKenna← T. James

86'

R. Haynes← K. Bowie

88'

R. Sotiriou← T. Archibald

90+2'

Akinwale Odimayo

90+2'

M. Dyche← L. Appéré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonNorthampton

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots8

5Corners4

7Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots8

3On Target2

8Off Target3

3Blocked3

6Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

500Total Passes265

394Accurate Passes133

79%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1