Leyton Orient 1–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Northampton

J. Wright 85' (pen)

R. Watson 43'

1/21/2020

League Two · Round 26The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Leyton Orient40%

×Draw27%

Northampton33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.19

Leyton Orient

1.32

Northampton

1.19

Leyton Orient creates 11% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 88 away

1.41

creates per match

1.24

1.13

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

67%

Leyton Orient or Northampton

73%

Draw or Northampton

60%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

18%

Northampton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

73%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

38%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

15%

Northampton 1+ goals

70%

Northampton 2+ goals

33%

Northampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

54%

Northampton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Northampton attack 1.24 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

40%

level

27%

Northampton scores more

33%

Leyton Orient at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

D. Happe

Leyton Orient · D

7.7

Match Events

35'

43'

45'

56'

57'

R. Sotiriou← M. Harrold

58'

J. Maguire-Drew← J. Coulson

59'

Paul Anderson

63'

J. Dayton← O. Cissé

71'

J. Martin← P. Anderson

75'

A. Williams← V. Oliver

76'

David Cornell

85'

J. WrightPenalty

88'

Scott Wharton

89'

James Dayton

90'

Joe Martin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonNorthampton

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots14

9Corners5

15Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target3

2Off Target7

6Blocked4

9Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

439Total Passes259

308Accurate Passes134

70%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides2