Leyton Orient 1–2 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Crawley Town

G. Morris 62' (OG)

K. Appiah 66'

G. Francomb 32'

12/11/2021

League Two · Round 21The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient46%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Leyton Orient

1.52

Crawley Town

1.15

Leyton Orient creates 32% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 151 away

1.41

creates per match

1.17

1.13

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Crawley Town

1.17

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Crawley Town

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

71%

Leyton Orient or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

54%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

23%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

78%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

45%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

20%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

68%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

32%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

61%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

46%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

29%

Leyton Orient at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Drinan

Leyton Orient · F

7.3

Match Events

13'

Shadrach Ogie

28'

Kwesi Appiah

32'

Harry Smith

32'

G. Francomb↳ A. Davies

37'

Will Ferry

38'

D. Happe← T. James

51'

Archie Davies

62'

G. MorrisOwn goal

66'

K. Appiah↳ A. Nadesan

73'

Craig Clay

74'

C. Wood← S. Ogie

74'

M. Young← A. Mitchell

81'

R. Grego-Cox← A. Nadesan

82'

87'

90+6'

90+1'

90+6'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonCrawley

Overview

63%Possession37%

8Total Shots16

4Corners2

19Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots16

0On Target7

5Off Target6

3Blocked3

5Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

446Total Passes265

287Accurate Passes128

64%Pass Accuracy48%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls15

7Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1