Leyton Orient 2–1 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cambridge United

D. Johnson 45+4'

J. Maguire-Drew 17'

P. Mullin 63'

3/7/2020

League Two · Round 37The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Leyton Orient38%

×Draw28%

Cambridge United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.17

Leyton Orient

1.23

Cambridge United

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 68 away

1.41

creates per match

1.22

1.13

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Cambridge United

1.22

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Cambridge United

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

65%

Leyton Orient or Cambridge United

72%

Draw or Cambridge United

62%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

16%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

71%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

35%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

13%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

69%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

33%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

52%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Cambridge United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cambridge United attack 1.22 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

38%

level

28%

Cambridge United scores more

35%

Leyton Orient at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Maguire-Drew

Leyton Orient · F

8.0

Match Events

17'

J. Maguire-Drew↳ C. Clay

45'

Danny Johnson

45+4'

D. Johnson

48'

L. O'Neil← S. Carruthers

55'

57'

60'

63'

67'

J. McAnuff← J. Dayton

75'

L. Angol← D. Johnson

75'

J. Widdowson← J. Maguire-Drew

75'

S. Smith← P. Lewis

80'

George Maris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonCambridge

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots11

5Corners5

13Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots11

8On Target4

5Off Target5

3Blocked2

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

380Total Passes322

251Accurate Passes203

66%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0