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Lexington vs FC Tulsa — USL Championship 2018

Lexington
Lexington
Preview
23:30
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
10/9/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageToyota Stadium
47%
Lexington
model favours
47%25%28%

FC Tulsa score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lexington47%
×Draw25%
FC Tulsa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lexington
1.61
FC Tulsa
1.19

Lexington creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 130 away

creates per match

Lexington
1.41
FC Tulsa
1.19

allows per match

Lexington
1.18
FC Tulsa
1.81

finishing

Lexington+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lexington ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lexington or draw
72%
Lexington or FC Tulsa
75%
Draw or FC Tulsa
53%

Winning margin

Lexington wins by 2+
24%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lexington 1+ goals
80%
Lexington 2+ goals
48%
Lexington 3+ goals
22%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
70%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
33%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lexington (draw refunded)
63%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lexington at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lexington attack 1.41 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + Lexington defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lexington scores more
47%
level
25%
FC Tulsa scores more
28%

Lexington at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lexington will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Lexington score first in only 33% of matches
  • 50% of Lexington’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lexington
LLWDW
Tulsa
LLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lexington vs FC Tulsa — Match Preview

Lexington face FC Tulsa on October 9, 2026 in this USL Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lexington host FC Tulsa at Toyota Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.