Levski Sofia 2–2 Ludogorets: Result & Stats

Levski Sofia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ludogorets

Jawad El Jemili 68'

O. Kamdem 61'

I. Chochev 77'

E. Bille 36'

5/17/2025

First League · Championship Round - 5Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Levski Sofia42%

×Draw27%

Ludogorets31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski SofiaExpected goals in this matchLudogorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.14

Levski Sofia

1.38

Ludogorets

1.14

Levski Sofia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

2.05

creates per match

1.66

0.61

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Levski Sofia

2.05

Ludogorets

1.66

allows per match

Levski Sofia

0.61

Ludogorets

0.72

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.07on par

Ludogorets+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Ludogorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw

69%

Levski Sofia or Ludogorets

73%

Draw or Ludogorets

58%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

20%

Ludogorets wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

75%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

40%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

16%

Ludogorets 1+ goals

68%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

32%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

58%

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.61 · 26 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.72 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 2.05 + Ludogorets defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ludogorets attack 1.66 + Levski Sofia defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Levski Sofia scores more

42%

level

27%

Ludogorets scores more

31%

Levski Sofia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Jawad El Jemili

Levski Sofia · M

7.9

Match Events

36'

39'

40'

40'

45+1'

46'

Everton Bala← C. Makoun

46'

Caio Vidal← Erick Marcus

61'

O. Kamdem

62'

Oliver Kamdem

64'

A. Nedyalkov← G. Rusev

64'

A. Witry← Son

67'

A. Kolev← M. Sangaré

68'

Jawad El Jemili

70'

Kellian van der Kaap

71'

G. Trdin← K. van der Kaap

77'

I. Chochev

80'

A. Camara← D. Gropper

84'

Maicon Araujo dos Santos

85'

Deroy Duarte← I. Yordanov

86'

I. Stefanov← A. Mitkov

87'

Aldair← O. Kamdem

90+3'

Georgi Kostadinov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevskiLudogorets

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots14

0.83Expected Goals (xG)0.57

5Corners5

15Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots14

4On Target4

6Off Target7

4Blocked3

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

391Total Passes289

353Accurate Passes241

90%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls12

6Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1