Levski Sofia vs Cherno More Varna

Levski Sofia

Preview

15:00

Cherno More Varna

4/3/2027

First League · Round 24Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov

Big match

48%

Levski Sofia

model favours

48%27%25%

Levski Sofia are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

60%

under 2.5 goals

45%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Levski Sofia48%

×Draw27%

Cherno More Varna25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski SofiaExpected goals in this matchCherno More Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.91

Levski Sofia

1.38

Cherno More Varna

0.91

Levski Sofia creates 52% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 136 away

1.66

creates per match

1.06

0.76

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Levski Sofia

1.66

Cherno More Varna

1.06

allows per match

Levski Sofia

0.76

Cherno More Varna

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Cherno More Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw

75%

Levski Sofia or Cherno More Varna

73%

Draw or Cherno More Varna

52%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

23%

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

75%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

40%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

16%

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals

60%

Cherno More Varna 2+ goals

23%

Cherno More Varna 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

66%

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 136 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 1.66 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Levski Sofia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Levski Sofia scores more

48%

level

27%

Cherno More Varna scores more

25%

Levski Sofia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Cherno More Varna are unbeaten in 6 straight
Levski Sofia score first in only 33% of matches
Both teams score in only 28% of Levski Sofia’s matches
67% of Levski Sofia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Levski Sofia win just 51% against the top half (vs 88% against the bottom)
36% of Levski Sofia’s goals come after the 75th minute