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Levski Sofia vs Cherno More Varna — First League 2018

Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
7/30/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Levski Sofia48%
×Draw27%
Cherno More Varna25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia
1.38
Cherno More Varna
0.91

Levski Sofia creates 52% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 136 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia
1.66
Cherno More Varna
1.06

allows per match

Levski Sofia
0.76
Cherno More Varna
1.10

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw
75%
Levski Sofia or Cherno More Varna
73%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
52%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+
23%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals
75%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
40%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
16%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
60%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
23%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
66%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 136 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 1.66 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Levski Sofia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Levski Sofia scores more
48%
level
27%
Cherno More Varna scores more
25%

Levski Sofia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Levski Sofia 2–2 Cherno More Varna

Levski Sofia and Cherno More Varna drew 2-2 in First League on July 30, 2018.

The match was played at Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov Stadium in Sofia.