Levski Karlovo 1–1 Dimitrovgrad: Result & Stats

Levski Karlovo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dimitrovgrad

11/3/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 16Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Levski Karlovo55%

×Draw24%

Dimitrovgrad21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski KarlovoExpected goals in this matchDimitrovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.96

Levski Karlovo

1.73

Dimitrovgrad

0.96

Levski Karlovo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 135 away

1.51

creates per match

0.80

1.13

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Levski Karlovo

1.51

Dimitrovgrad

0.80

allows per match

Levski Karlovo

1.13

Dimitrovgrad

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Dimitrovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw

79%

Levski Karlovo or Dimitrovgrad

76%

Draw or Dimitrovgrad

45%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+

31%

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals

82%

Levski Karlovo 2+ goals

52%

Levski Karlovo 3+ goals

25%

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

62%

Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

25%

Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)

73%

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Dimitrovgrad away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.95 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dimitrovgrad attack 0.80 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more

55%

level

24%

Dimitrovgrad scores more

21%

Levski Karlovo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff