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Levante W vs Real Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Levante W
Levante W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
10/23/2022Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 6Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Levante W31%
×Draw23%
Real Madrid W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante W
1.40
Real Madrid W
1.75

Real Madrid W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 92 away

creates per match

Levante W
1.88
Real Madrid W
2.29

allows per match

Levante W
1.22
Real Madrid W
0.92

finishing

Levante W+0.00on par
Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante W ↓

Real Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Levante W or draw
54%
Levante W or Real Madrid W
77%
Draw or Real Madrid W
69%

Winning margin

Levante W wins by 2+
14%
Real Madrid W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Levante W 1+ goals
75%
Levante W 2+ goals
41%
Levante W 3+ goals
17%
Real Madrid W 1+ goals
83%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
52%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Levante W (draw refunded)
40%
Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.22 · 117 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante W attack 1.88 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Levante W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Levante W scores more
31%
level
23%
Real Madrid W scores more
46%

Real Madrid W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Levante W 2–2 Real Madrid W

Levante W and Real Madrid W drew 2-2 in Primera División Femenina on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia.