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Levante W vs Rayo Vallecano W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Levante W
Levante W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rayo Vallecano W
Rayo Vallecano W
9/22/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 3Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Levante W60%
×Draw21%
Rayo Vallecano W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante W
1.99
Rayo Vallecano W
1.02

Levante W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 58 away

creates per match

Levante W
1.88
Rayo Vallecano W
0.81

allows per match

Levante W
1.22
Rayo Vallecano W
2.10

finishing

Levante W+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante W ↓

Rayo Vallecano W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levante W or draw
81%
Levante W or Rayo Vallecano W
79%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano W
40%

Winning margin

Levante W wins by 2+
36%
Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Levante W 1+ goals
86%
Levante W 2+ goals
59%
Levante W 3+ goals
32%
Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals
64%
Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals
27%
Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Levante W (draw refunded)
76%
Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.22 · 117 matches

Rayo Vallecano W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante W attack 1.88 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.99

Rayo Vallecano W attack 0.81 + Levante W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Levante W scores more
60%
level
21%
Rayo Vallecano W scores more
19%

Levante W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Levante W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levante W vs Rayo Vallecano W

Rayo Vallecano W beat Levante W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1 in Buñol.