Levante W 2–2 Granada: Result & Stats

Levante W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Granada

Alba Redondo 16'

Gabi Nunes 9'

E. Imade 85'

Lauri Requena 2'

1/28/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 15Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Levante W50%

×Draw23%

Granada26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levante WExpected goals in this matchGranada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.23

Levante W

1.79

Granada

1.23

Levante W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 45 away

1.88

creates per match

1.24

1.22

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Levante W

1.88

Granada

1.24

allows per match

Levante W

1.22

Granada

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante W+0.00on par

Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante W ↓

Granada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Levante W or draw

74%

Levante W or Granada

77%

Draw or Granada

50%

Winning margin

Levante W wins by 2+

28%

Granada wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Levante W 1+ goals

83%

Levante W 2+ goals

53%

Levante W 3+ goals

26%

Granada 1+ goals

71%

Granada 2+ goals

35%

Granada 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Levante W (draw refunded)

66%

Granada (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.22 · 117 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante W attack 1.88 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

Granada attack 1.24 + Levante W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Levante W scores more

50%

level

23%

Granada scores more

26%

Levante W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Levante W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

E. Holmgren

Levante W · G

7.7

Match Events

2'

Lauri Requena

9'

Gabi Nunes↳ Paula Tomás

16'

Alba Redondo↳ N. Andonova

46'

Anna Torrodà← Leire Baños

59'

Carlota Suárez← Ariadna Mingueza

59'

E. Imade← Andrea Gómez

61'

Daniela Arques← Paula Fernández

61'

Silvia Lloris← Núria Mendoza

65'

Paula Tomás

67'

Érika González← N. Andonova

72'

Naroa Uriarte← Alba Pérez

72'

Laura Pérez← Naima García

78'

Aixa García← Gabi Nunes

82'

D. Falfán← Lauri Requena

85'

E. Imade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevanteGranada

Overview

67%Possession33%

15Total Shots14

6Corners4

11Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots14

5On Target7

7Off Target5

3Blocked2

10Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

67%Possession33%

547Total Passes265

433Accurate Passes164

79%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides3