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Levante W vs Barcelona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Levante W
Levante W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barcelona W
Barcelona W
1/12/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 17Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1 (Buñol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Levante W16%
×Draw18%
Barcelona W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante W
1.11
Barcelona W
2.46

Barcelona W creates 122% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 119 away

creates per match

Levante W
1.88
Barcelona W
3.70

allows per match

Levante W
1.22
Barcelona W
0.34

finishing

Levante W+0.00on par
Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante W ↓

Barcelona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Levante W or draw
33%
Levante W or Barcelona W
82%
Draw or Barcelona W
84%

Winning margin

Levante W wins by 2+
6%
Barcelona W wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Levante W 1+ goals
67%
Levante W 2+ goals
30%
Levante W 3+ goals
10%
Barcelona W 1+ goals
91%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
70%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Levante W (draw refunded)
19%
Barcelona W (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.22 · 117 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 3.70, concedes 0.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante W attack 1.88 + Barcelona W defence 0.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Barcelona W attack 3.70 + Levante W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Levante W scores more
16%
level
18%
Barcelona W scores more
67%

Barcelona W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Levante W 0–1 Barcelona W

Barcelona W beat Levante W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on January 12, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1 (Buñol).