Levante 1–3 Real Sociedad: Result & Stats | La Liga

Levante

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Real Sociedad

Chema 4'

Mikel Oyarzabal 83'

Juanmi 77'

T. Hernández 73'

11/9/2018

La Liga · Round 12Ciutat de València

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Levante44%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.26

Levante

1.54

Real Sociedad

1.26

Levante creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

1.58

creates per match

1.05

1.47

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Levante

1.58

Real Sociedad

1.05

allows per match

Levante

1.47

Real Sociedad

1.51

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Levante-0.21scores less

Real Sociedad+0.02on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Real Sociedad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Levante or draw

69%

Levante or Real Sociedad

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad

56%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

22%

Real Sociedad wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

79%

Levante 2+ goals

45%

Levante 3+ goals

20%

Real Sociedad 1+ goals

72%

Real Sociedad 2+ goals

36%

Real Sociedad 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

58%

Real Sociedad (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Real Sociedad away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.51 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.58 + Real Sociedad defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Sociedad attack 1.05 + Levante defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Levante scores more

44%

level

25%

Real Sociedad scores more

31%

Levante at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Mikel Oyarzabal

Real Sociedad · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

Chema↳ Jason

13'

Emmanuel Boateng

24'

Chema

46'

Zurutuza← Andoni Gorosabel

49'

José Luis Morales

53'

Asier Illarramendi

56'

Juanmi← Igor Zubeldía

65'

Enis Bardhi

73'

T. Hernández↳ Mikel Oyarzabal

76'

José Campaña

77'

Coke← Borja Mayoral

77'

Juanmi↳ A. Januzaj

83'

Mikel Oyarzabal↳ Juanmi

84'

Roger Martí← S. Prcić

88'

Oier Olazábal

90+1'

M. Simon← Jason

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevanteReal

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots15

6Corners4

17Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots15

2On Target4

7Off Target5

8Blocked6

8Inside Box5

9Outside Box10

Passing

47%Possession53%

368Total Passes428

294Accurate Passes346

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls12

6Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides4