Levante 4–2 Real Betis: Result & Stats | La Liga

Levante

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Real Betis

6/28/2020

La Liga · Round 32Estadio Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Levante40%

×Draw25%

Real Betis35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchReal Betis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.38

Levante

1.51

Real Betis

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

1.58

creates per match

1.28

1.47

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Levante

1.58

Real Betis

1.28

allows per match

Levante

1.47

Real Betis

1.44

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante-0.21scores less

Real Betis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Real Betis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Levante or draw

65%

Levante or Real Betis

75%

Draw or Real Betis

60%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

20%

Real Betis wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

78%

Levante 2+ goals

44%

Levante 3+ goals

19%

Real Betis 1+ goals

75%

Real Betis 2+ goals

40%

Real Betis 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

54%

Real Betis (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Real Betis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.58 + Real Betis defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.51

Real Betis attack 1.28 + Levante defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Levante scores more

40%

level

25%

Real Betis scores more

35%

Levante at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff