Levante 1–1 Oviedo: Result & Stats

Levante

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oviedo

M. Bouldini 63'

Borja Bastón 47'

9/2/2023

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Levante47%

×Draw28%

Oviedo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchOviedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.93

Levante

1.36

Oviedo

0.93

Levante creates 46% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 151 away

1.55

creates per match

0.95

0.90

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Levante

1.55

Oviedo

0.95

allows per match

Levante

0.90

Oviedo

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante+0.00on par

Oviedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Oviedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Levante or draw

74%

Levante or Oviedo

72%

Draw or Oviedo

53%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

22%

Oviedo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

74%

Levante 2+ goals

39%

Levante 3+ goals

16%

Oviedo 1+ goals

61%

Oviedo 2+ goals

24%

Oviedo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

65%

Oviedo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Oviedo away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.17 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.55 + Oviedo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

Oviedo attack 0.95 + Levante defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Levante scores more

47%

level

28%

Oviedo scores more

26%

Levante at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Álex Muñoz

Levante · D

7.9

Match Events

17'

Luismi

32'

Santiago Colombatto

45+1'

Rúben Vezo

47'

Borja Bastón↳ Dani Calvo

49'

Santiago Colombatto

49'

Santiago Colombatto

53'

Capa← Rúben Vezo

53'

Jimmy Suárez← Paulino

63'

M. Bouldini↳ Andrés García

65'

Dani Gómez← Cantero

65'

Carlos Álvarez← G. Kochorashvili

66'

Ander Capa

70'

Carlos Pomares← Borja Bastón

73'

Carlos Álvarez

78'

Óscar Clemente← Sergio Lozano

78'

Brugui← Andrés García

84'

Mascarenhas← Sebas Moyano

89'

Dani GómezGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevanteOviedo

Overview

73%Possession27%

17Total Shots11

4Corners2

18Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots11

4On Target2

7Off Target5

6Blocked4

9Inside Box7

8Outside Box4

Passing

73%Possession27%

598Total Passes211

514Accurate Passes127

86%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2

Segunda División: Levante 1–1 Oviedo

Levante and Oviedo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 2, 2023.

Goals: Borja Bastón (47'), M. Bouldini (63').

Levante controlled possession (73%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia.

Levante vs Oviedo — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Levante 1–1 Oviedo