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Levante vs Lugo — Segunda División 2018

Levante
Levante
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lugo
Lugo
Roger Martí 73' (pen)
1/7/2017Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 20Ciutat de València

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Levante52%
×Draw26%
Lugo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante
1.50
Lugo
0.86

Levante creates 74% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 106 away

creates per match

Levante
1.55
Lugo
0.82

allows per match

Levante
0.90
Lugo
1.45

finishing

Levante+0.00on par
Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Lugo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Levante or draw
78%
Levante or Lugo
74%
Draw or Lugo
48%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+
27%
Lugo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals
78%
Levante 2+ goals
44%
Levante 3+ goals
19%
Lugo 1+ goals
58%
Lugo 2+ goals
21%
Lugo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)
71%
Lugo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.55 + Lugo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lugo attack 0.82 + Levante defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Levante scores more
52%
level
26%
Lugo scores more
22%

Levante at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
CampañaLevanteLevante · M
8.2

Match Events

31'
Fernando Seoane
62'
Iriome← P. Caballero
64'
Serge Leuko
66'
Joselu
67'
Verza← Natxo Insa
72'
Jason← Rubén García
73'
Roger MartíPenalty
75'
Fede Vico← Fernando Seoane
80'
B. Perea← Alfonso Pedraza
86'
J. Lerma← Javier Espinosa
88'
José Campaña
90'
Verza

Possession

50%Levante

Shots

20Levante

Pass accuracy

50%Levante

Statistics

LevanteLugo
Overview
50%Possession50%
20Total Shots5
9Corners1
8Fouls19
Shots
20Total Shots5
6On Target2
8Off Target3
6Blocked0
14Inside Box3
6Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
415Total Passes411
317Accurate Passes317
76%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls19
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Levante vs Lugo

Levante beat Lugo 1-0 in Segunda División on January 7, 2017.

Goals: Roger Martí (73' pen).

Levante controlled possession (50%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Ciutat de València in Valencia.