Levante 0–1 FC Cartagena: Result & Stats

Levante

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Cartagena

A. Sadiku 45+2'

9/16/2022

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Levante52%

×Draw25%

FC Cartagena23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchFC Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.93

Levante

1.56

FC Cartagena

0.93

Levante creates 68% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 105 away

1.55

creates per match

0.95

0.90

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Levante

1.55

FC Cartagena

0.95

allows per match

Levante

0.90

FC Cartagena

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante+0.00on par

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

FC Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Levante or draw

77%

Levante or FC Cartagena

75%

Draw or FC Cartagena

48%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

27%

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

79%

Levante 2+ goals

46%

Levante 3+ goals

21%

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

61%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

24%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

70%

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.55 + FC Cartagena defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Cartagena attack 0.95 + Levante defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Levante scores more

52%

level

25%

FC Cartagena scores more

23%

Levante at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Aarón Escandell

FC Cartagena · G

8.5

Match Events

3'

Jorge de FrutosPenalty cancelled

10'

Pedro Alcalá

22'

A. Sadiku← Alfredo Ortuño

32'

Jairo Izquierdo González

45+1'

Jorge de Frutos

45+4'

Toni DatkovićPenalty confirmed

45+2'

A. Sadiku↳ T. Datković

54'

Toni Datković

56'

Wesley Moraes

57'

M. Bouldini← Soldado

64'

Delmás← Jairo Izquierdo

64'

Sangalli← Borja Valle

66'

Cantero← Jorge de Frutos

66'

Brugui← Joni Montiel

68'

Luca Sangalli

80'

Óscar← P. De Blasis

81'

C. Musonda← Wesley Moraes

81'

Rober Ibáñez← Enric Franquesa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevanteFC

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots5

3Corners2

18Fouls21

Shots

10Total Shots5

5On Target2

4Off Target3

1Blocked0

6Inside Box3

4Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

408Total Passes378

328Accurate Passes292

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls21

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2