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Levante vs Atletico Madrid — La Liga 2026

Levante
Levante
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
5/18/2019La LigaLa Liga · Round 38Ciutat de València

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Levante42%
×Draw25%
Atletico Madrid33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante
1.48
Atletico Madrid
1.29

Levante creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Levante
1.58
Atletico Madrid
1.11

allows per match

Levante
1.47
Atletico Madrid
1.38

finishing

Levante-0.21scores less
Atletico Madrid+0.03on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Atletico Madrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Levante or draw
67%
Levante or Atletico Madrid
75%
Draw or Atletico Madrid
58%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+
20%
Atletico Madrid wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals
77%
Levante 2+ goals
43%
Levante 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Madrid 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Madrid 2+ goals
37%
Atletico Madrid 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)
56%
Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.38 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.58 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atletico Madrid attack 1.11 + Levante defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Levante scores more
42%
level
25%
Atletico Madrid scores more
33%

Levante at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Liga: Levante 2–2 Atletico Madrid

Levante and Atletico Madrid drew 2-2 in La Liga on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Ciutat de València in Valencia.