Levante 1–2 Athletic Club: Result & Stats | La Liga

Levante

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Athletic Club

7/12/2020

La Liga · Round 36Estadio Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Levante43%

×Draw25%

Athletic Club32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.27

Levante

1.50

Athletic Club

1.27

Levante creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

1.58

creates per match

1.06

1.47

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Levante

1.58

Athletic Club

1.06

allows per match

Levante

1.47

Athletic Club

1.41

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Levante-0.21scores less

Athletic Club-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Athletic Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Levante or draw

68%

Levante or Athletic Club

75%

Draw or Athletic Club

57%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

21%

Athletic Club wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

78%

Levante 2+ goals

44%

Levante 3+ goals

19%

Athletic Club 1+ goals

72%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

36%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

57%

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Athletic Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.41 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.58 + Athletic Club defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Athletic Club attack 1.06 + Levante defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Levante scores more

43%

level

25%

Athletic Club scores more

32%

Levante at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff