Levante 2–0 Alaves: Result & Stats

Levante

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Alaves

Wesley Moraes 32'

Pepelu 7'

4/29/2023

Segunda División · Round 38Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Levante45%

×Draw29%

Alaves26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchAlaves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.91

Levante

1.28

Alaves

0.91

Levante creates 41% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 23 away

1.56

creates per match

0.91

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Levante

1.56

Alaves

0.91

allows per match

Levante

0.91

Alaves

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante+0.00on par

Alaves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Alaves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Levante or draw

74%

Levante or Alaves

71%

Draw or Alaves

55%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

21%

Alaves wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

72%

Levante 2+ goals

37%

Levante 3+ goals

14%

Alaves 1+ goals

60%

Alaves 2+ goals

23%

Alaves 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

63%

Alaves (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.91 · 66 matches

Alaves away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.56 + Alaves defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Alaves attack 0.91 + Levante defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Levante scores more

45%

level

29%

Alaves scores more

26%

Levante at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Joni Montiel

Levante · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

Pepelu

29'

Vicente Iborra

32'

Wesley Moraes↳ Joni Montiel

34'

Antonio Blanco

37'

Son← Álex Muñoz

44'

Joni Montiel

46'

Jon Guridi

58'

Asier Villalibre← Jon Guridi

58'

Álex Balboa← Antonio Blanco

58'

Salva Sevilla← Jason

67'

C. Musonda← Joni Montiel

67'

M. Bouldini← Cantero

67'

Soldado← Wesley Moraes

71'

A. Rebbach← Róber

79'

Andrés García← Rober Ibáñez

81'

M. Sylla← Miguel de la Fuente

82'

83'

88'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevanteAlaves

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots7

11Corners8

20Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots7

7On Target0

4Off Target3

3Blocked4

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

327Total Passes354

257Accurate Passes282

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls13

6Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4