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Levante vs Alaves — La Liga 2026

Levante
Levante
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alaves
Alaves
11/8/2020La LigaLa Liga · Round 9Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Levante42%
×Draw25%
Alaves33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante
1.51
Alaves
1.31

Levante creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Levante
1.58
Alaves
1.15

allows per match

Levante
1.47
Alaves
1.44

finishing

Levante-0.21scores less
Alaves-0.19scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Alaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Levante or draw
67%
Levante or Alaves
75%
Draw or Alaves
58%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+
21%
Alaves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals
78%
Levante 2+ goals
44%
Levante 3+ goals
19%
Alaves 1+ goals
73%
Alaves 2+ goals
38%
Alaves 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)
56%
Alaves (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Alaves away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.44 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.58 + Alaves defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.51

Alaves attack 1.15 + Levante defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Levante scores more
42%
level
25%
Alaves scores more
33%

Levante at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levante vs Alaves

Levante and Alaves drew 1-1 in La Liga on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia.