Levante 2–1 Alaves: Result & Stats | La Liga

Levante

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Alaves

Toño 36'

Jason 19'

Rubén Sobrino 5'

9/30/2018

La Liga · Round 7Ciutat de València

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Levante42%

×Draw25%

Alaves33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchAlaves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.31

Levante

1.51

Alaves

1.31

Levante creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

1.58

creates per match

1.15

1.47

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Levante

1.58

Alaves

1.15

allows per match

Levante

1.47

Alaves

1.44

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Levante-0.21scores less

Alaves-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Alaves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Levante or draw

67%

Levante or Alaves

75%

Draw or Alaves

58%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

21%

Alaves wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

78%

Levante 2+ goals

44%

Levante 3+ goals

19%

Alaves 1+ goals

73%

Alaves 2+ goals

38%

Alaves 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

56%

Alaves (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Alaves away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.44 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.58 + Alaves defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.51

Alaves attack 1.15 + Levante defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Levante scores more

42%

level

25%

Alaves scores more

33%

Levante at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Jason

Levante · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

Rubén Sobrino↳ Ibai Gómez

19'

Jason↳ Rubén Rochina

36'

Toño

45'

Jason

46'

Ximo Navarro← Rubén Duarte

59'

Jony← Burgui

60'

M. Simon← Jason

66'

J. Calleri← J. Guidetti

72'

Chema← E. Cabaco

73'

Sanjin Prcić

80'

Ruben Rochina

83'

C. Doukouré← Rubén Rochina

85'

86'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevanteAlaves

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots13

9Corners4

22Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots13

3On Target2

11Off Target8

0Blocked3

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box8

Passing

47%Possession53%

289Total Passes315

202Accurate Passes220

70%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls19

7Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0