Levante II 0–0 Villarreal III: Result & Stats

Levante II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villarreal III

3/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 23Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Levante II41%

×Draw28%

Villarreal III31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levante IIExpected goals in this matchVillarreal III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.07

Levante II

1.27

Villarreal III

1.07

Levante II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 112 away

1.32

creates per match

1.38

0.76

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Levante II

1.32

Villarreal III

1.38

allows per match

Levante II

0.76

Villarreal III

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante II+0.00on par

Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante II ↓

Villarreal III →

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Levante II or draw

69%

Levante II or Villarreal III

72%

Draw or Villarreal III

59%

Winning margin

Levante II wins by 2+

18%

Villarreal III wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Levante II 1+ goals

72%

Levante II 2+ goals

36%

Levante II 3+ goals

14%

Villarreal III 1+ goals

66%

Villarreal III 2+ goals

29%

Villarreal III 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Levante II (draw refunded)

57%

Villarreal III (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Levante II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.76 · 68 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Levante II attack 1.32 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Levante II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Levante II scores more

41%

level

28%

Villarreal III scores more

31%

Levante II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Levante II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Levante II 0–0 Villarreal III

Levante II and Villarreal III drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1 in Buñol.

Levante II vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Levante II 0–0 Villarreal III