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Les Astres vs Young Sport Academy — Elite One 2019

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
0 – 5
Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
7/18/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 13Stade Omnisport de Douala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Les Astres44%
×Draw28%
Young Sport Academy28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.31
Young Sport Academy
1.00

Les Astres creates 31% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 79 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.31
Young Sport Academy
0.94

allows per match

Les Astres
1.06
Young Sport Academy
1.32

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Young Sport Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
72%
Les Astres or Young Sport Academy
72%
Draw or Young Sport Academy
56%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
20%
Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
73%
Les Astres 2+ goals
38%
Les Astres 3+ goals
14%
Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
63%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
26%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
61%
Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Les Astres scores more
44%
level
28%
Young Sport Academy scores more
28%

Les Astres at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Les Astres vs Young Sport Academy

Young Sport Academy beat Les Astres 5-0 in Elite One on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport de Douala in Douala.