Les Astres 3–1 Union Douala: Result & Stats

Les Astres

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Union Douala

6/17/2022

Elite One · Round 28Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Les Astres43%

×Draw30%

Union Douala27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Les AstresExpected goals in this matchUnion Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.89

Les Astres

1.20

Union Douala

0.89

Les Astres creates 35% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 85 away

1.31

creates per match

0.71

1.06

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Les Astres

1.31

Union Douala

0.71

allows per match

Les Astres

1.06

Union Douala

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par

Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Union Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw

73%

Les Astres or Union Douala

70%

Draw or Union Douala

57%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+

19%

Union Douala wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals

70%

Les Astres 2+ goals

34%

Les Astres 3+ goals

12%

Union Douala 1+ goals

59%

Union Douala 2+ goals

22%

Union Douala 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)

61%

Union Douala (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Les Astres scores more

43%

level

30%

Union Douala scores more

27%

Les Astres at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff