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Leotar vs BSK Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Leotar
Leotar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BSK Banja Luka
BSK Banja Luka
3/2/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 18Stadion Police

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Leotar55%
×Draw24%
BSK Banja Luka20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leotar
1.69
BSK Banja Luka
0.92

Leotar creates 84% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 48 away

creates per match

Leotar
1.88
BSK Banja Luka
1.27

allows per match

Leotar
0.56
BSK Banja Luka
1.50

finishing

Leotar+0.00on par
BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leotar ↓

BSK Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leotar or draw
80%
Leotar or BSK Banja Luka
76%
Draw or BSK Banja Luka
45%

Winning margin

Leotar wins by 2+
30%
BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leotar 1+ goals
82%
Leotar 2+ goals
50%
Leotar 3+ goals
24%
BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals
60%
BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals
23%
BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leotar (draw refunded)
73%
BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leotar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.56 · 64 matches

BSK Banja Luka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leotar attack 1.88 + BSK Banja Luka defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

BSK Banja Luka attack 1.27 + Leotar defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Leotar scores more
55%
level
24%
BSK Banja Luka scores more
20%

Leotar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leotar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Leotar 1–0 BSK Banja Luka

Leotar beat BSK Banja Luka 1-0 in 1st League - RS on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Police in Trebinje.