Leopard de Douala vs FC Rangers

Leopard de Douala

CANC

00:00

FC Rangers

5/31/2022

Elite Two · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Leopard de Douala48%

×Draw26%

FC Rangers26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leopard de DoualaExpected goals in this matchFC Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.03

Leopard de Douala

1.50

FC Rangers

1.03

Leopard de Douala creates 46% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 23 away

1.10

creates per match

0.78

1.28

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Leopard de Douala

1.10

FC Rangers

0.78

allows per match

Leopard de Douala

1.28

FC Rangers

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

FC Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

FC Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw

74%

Leopard de Douala or FC Rangers

74%

Draw or FC Rangers

52%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+

24%

FC Rangers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals

78%

Leopard de Douala 2+ goals

44%

Leopard de Douala 3+ goals

19%

FC Rangers 1+ goals

64%

FC Rangers 2+ goals

28%

FC Rangers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)

65%

FC Rangers (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

FC Rangers away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + FC Rangers defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Rangers attack 0.78 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more

48%

level

26%

FC Rangers scores more

26%

Leopard de Douala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leopard de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff