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Leones Negros UDG vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
3/16/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 12Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Leones Negros UDG48%
×Draw26%
Tampico Madero26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones Negros UDG
1.46
Tampico Madero
0.99

Leones Negros UDG creates 47% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 64 away

creates per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.75
Tampico Madero
0.91

allows per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.06
Tampico Madero
1.17

finishing

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones Negros UDG ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG or draw
74%
Leones Negros UDG or Tampico Madero
74%
Draw or Tampico Madero
52%

Winning margin

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
24%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
77%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
43%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
18%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
63%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
26%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
65%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 134 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.75 + Tampico Madero defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tampico Madero attack 0.91 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leones Negros UDG scores more
48%
level
26%
Tampico Madero scores more
26%

Leones Negros UDG at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leones Negros UDG vs Tampico Madero

Leones Negros UDG beat Tampico Madero 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara).