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Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDGadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Monarcas
Monarcas
11/19/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Leones Negros UDG49%
×Draw25%
Monarcas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones Negros UDG
1.58
Monarcas
1.08

Leones Negros UDG creates 46% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 108 away

creates per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.75
Monarcas
1.11

allows per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.06
Monarcas
1.41

finishing

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par
Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones Negros UDG ↓

Monarcas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG or draw
74%
Leones Negros UDG or Monarcas
75%
Draw or Monarcas
51%

Winning margin

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
25%
Monarcas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
79%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
47%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
21%
Monarcas 1+ goals
66%
Monarcas 2+ goals
29%
Monarcas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
65%
Monarcas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 134 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.75 + Monarcas defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Monarcas attack 1.11 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leones Negros UDG scores more
49%
level
25%
Monarcas scores more
26%

Leones Negros UDG at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Leones Negros UDG 2–0 Monarcas

Leones Negros UDG beat Monarcas 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.