Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 108+ matches
Leones Negros UDG49%
Monarcas26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Leones Negros UDG creates 45% more chances
Season form · 138 home / 108 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Leones Negros UDG ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.07 · 138 matches
Monarcas away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Leones Negros UDG attack 1.75 + Monarcas defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58
Monarcas attack 1.11 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Leones Negros UDG at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Monarcas substitutes
CDS Tampico Madero
Cancún
Tepatitlán
Atlante FCMonarcas
Mineros de Zacatecas
Irapuato
CA La Paz
TapatíoLeones Negros UDG
Venados FC
Tlaxcala
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Correcaminos Uat
DoradosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Leones Negros UDG host Monarcas on Friday, 24 March 2023 at 01:05. The match is part of the Liga de Expansión MX 2018/2019 season.
Leones Negros UDG 0 – 1 Monarcas
Monarcas beat Leones Negros UDG 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 24, 2023.
Goals: B. Mendoza (51').
The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.