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Leon vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Leon
Leon
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
11/27/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - Play-offsEstadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Leon52%
×Draw24%
Santos Laguna24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leon
1.74
Santos Laguna
1.11

Leon creates 57% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 142 away

creates per match

Leon
1.61
Santos Laguna
1.09

allows per match

Leon
1.14
Santos Laguna
1.87

finishing

Leon+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Leon or draw
76%
Leon or Santos Laguna
76%
Draw or Santos Laguna
48%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+
29%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals
82%
Leon 2+ goals
52%
Leon 3+ goals
25%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
67%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
30%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)
68%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 148 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.61 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.74

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + Leon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leon scores more
52%
level
24%
Santos Laguna scores more
24%

Leon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Leon 3–2 Santos Laguna

Leon beat Santos Laguna 3-2 in Liga MX on November 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio León in León de los Aldamas.