Leon 1–1 Monterrey: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Monterrey

L. Di Yorio 14'

D. Vergara 84' (pen)

2/28/2023

Liga MX · Clausura - 9Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Leon46%

×Draw24%

Monterrey30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.28

Leon

1.65

Monterrey

1.28

Leon creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.54

creates per match

1.17

1.39

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Leon

1.54

Monterrey

1.17

allows per match

Leon

1.39

Monterrey

1.76

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Leon-0.04on par

Monterrey-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Leon or draw

70%

Leon or Monterrey

76%

Draw or Monterrey

54%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

24%

Monterrey wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

81%

Leon 2+ goals

49%

Leon 3+ goals

23%

Monterrey 1+ goals

72%

Monterrey 2+ goals

37%

Monterrey 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

61%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 6 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.54 + Monterrey defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Monterrey attack 1.17 + Leon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leon scores more

46%

level

24%

Monterrey scores more

30%

Leon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Gallardo

Monterrey · D

7.9

Match Events

14'

L. Di Yorio↳ J. Barreiro

33'

S. Vegas← H. Moreno

63'

R. Aguirre← M. Meza

63'

J. Cortizo← A. González

66'

F. Ambríz← J. Rodríguez

74'

A. Alvarado← Y. Moreno

74'

J. Campbell← V. Dávila

75'

D. Vergara← R. Funes Mori

75'

O. Govea← C. Ortiz

78'

Adonis Frías

78'

Luis Romo

83'

Duván VergaraPenalty confirmed

84'

D. VergaraPenalty

85'

Adonis Frías

85'

Adonis Frías

85'

Rodrigo Aguirre

90+2'

B. Rubio← L. Di Yorio

90+2'

E. Hernández← Á. Mena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonMonterrey

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots12

5Corners2

9Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target5

4Off Target6

2Blocked1

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

386Total Passes483

301Accurate Passes387

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides3