Leon 1–0 Monterrey: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Monterrey

L. Montes 83'

8/4/2020

Liga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Leon46%

×Draw24%

Monterrey30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.28

Leon

1.65

Monterrey

1.28

Leon creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.54

creates per match

1.17

1.39

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Leon

1.54

Monterrey

1.17

allows per match

Leon

1.39

Monterrey

1.76

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Leon-0.04on par

Monterrey-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Leon or draw

70%

Leon or Monterrey

76%

Draw or Monterrey

54%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

24%

Monterrey wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

81%

Leon 2+ goals

49%

Leon 3+ goals

23%

Monterrey 1+ goals

72%

Monterrey 2+ goals

37%

Monterrey 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

61%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 6 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.54 + Monterrey defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Monterrey attack 1.17 + Leon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leon scores more

46%

level

24%

Monterrey scores more

30%

Leon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Montes

Leon · M

8.2

Match Events

14'

Matías Kranevitter

21'

William Tesillo

61'

J. Campbell← N. Sosa

62'

A. González← M. Kranevitter

73'

J. Gónzalez← C. Ortiz

77'

A. León← E. Gigliotti

77'

A. Loba← M. Meza

83'

L. Montes↳ G. Burón

86'

P. Aquino← Á. Mena

90'

Stefan Medina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonMonterrey

Overview

67%Possession33%

13Total Shots13

4Corners6

16Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots13

2On Target1

5Off Target8

6Blocked4

5Inside Box6

8Outside Box7

Passing

67%Possession33%

577Total Passes268

513Accurate Passes197

89%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1