Leon 3–0 Mazatlán: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mazatlán

E. Gigliotti 80'

V. Dávila 68'

Á. Mena 42'

8/15/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Leon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Leon51%

×Draw24%

Mazatlán26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchMazatlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.18

Leon

1.76

Mazatlán

1.18

Leon creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.54

creates per match

0.97

1.39

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Leon

1.54

Mazatlán

0.97

allows per match

Leon

1.39

Mazatlán

1.98

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.77scores less than expected

finishing

Leon-0.04on par

Mazatlán-0.77scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Mazatlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Leon or draw

74%

Leon or Mazatlán

76%

Draw or Mazatlán

49%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

28%

Mazatlán wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

83%

Leon 2+ goals

52%

Leon 3+ goals

26%

Mazatlán 1+ goals

69%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

33%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

67%

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 6 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.98 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.54 + Mazatlán defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.76

Mazatlán attack 0.97 + Leon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leon scores more

51%

level

24%

Mazatlán scores more

26%

Leon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

V. Dávila

Leon · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

J. Barreiro← R. González

30'

42'

60'

60'

68'

V. Dávila↳ J. Rodríguez

72'

D. Amador← J. Padilla

72'

S. Arce← Giovanni Augusto

74'

Nicolás Díaz

77'

E. Gigliotti← V. Dávila

77'

J. Meneses← E. Hernández

80'

E. Gigliotti↳ O. Rodríguez

82'

J. Zárate← S. Rodríguez

84'

D. Ramírez← O. Rodríguez

84'

J. Zamudio← O. Fernández

88'

Nicolás Vikonis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonMazatlán

Overview

63%Possession37%

9Total Shots7

4Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots7

5On Target2

3Off Target3

1Blocked2

7Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

508Total Passes293

418Accurate Passes208

82%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1