Leon vs Club America: Preview & Prediction

Leon

Preview

01:00

Club America

10/18/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 12

Big match

38%

Leon

model favours

38%26%36%

Club America score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Leon38%

×Draw26%

Club America36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.34

Leon

1.38

Club America

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 146 home / 163 away

1.62

creates per match

1.55

1.14

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Leon

1.62

Club America

1.55

allows per match

Leon

1.14

Club America

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leon+0.00on par

Club America+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leon or draw

64%

Leon or Club America

74%

Draw or Club America

62%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

18%

Club America wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

75%

Leon 2+ goals

40%

Leon 3+ goals

16%

Club America 1+ goals

74%

Club America 2+ goals

39%

Club America 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

51%

Club America (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.14 · 146 matches

Club America away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.62 + Club America defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Club America attack 1.55 + Leon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leon scores more

38%

level

26%

Club America scores more

36%

Leon at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Leon raise their game against the top half — 43% wins vs the upper half, only 41% vs the lower
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
30% of Club America’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.