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León vs Club America — Liga MX 2026

León
León
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Club America
Club America
11/30/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

León38%
×Draw26%
Club America36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

León
1.38
Club America
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 164 away

creates per match

León
1.61
Club America
1.54

allows per match

León
1.14
Club America
1.14

finishing

León+0.00on par
Club America+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

León ↓

Club America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

León or draw
64%
León or Club America
74%
Draw or Club America
62%

Winning margin

León wins by 2+
18%
Club America wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

León 1+ goals
75%
León 2+ goals
40%
León 3+ goals
16%
Club America 1+ goals
74%
Club America 2+ goals
39%
Club America 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

León (draw refunded)
51%
Club America (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

León at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 148 matches

Club America away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.14 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

León attack 1.61 + Club America defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Club America attack 1.54 + León defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

León scores more
38%
level
26%
Club America scores more
36%

León at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "León will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: León 2–2 Club America

León and Club America drew 2-2 in Liga MX on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio León in León de los Aldamas.