Leon 2–0 Club America: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club America

M. Boselli 65' (pen), 11'

8/23/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Leon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leon37%

×Draw26%

Club America37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.32

Leon

1.33

Club America

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.54

creates per match

1.26

1.39

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Leon

1.54

Club America

1.26

allows per match

Leon

1.39

Club America

1.11

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Leon-0.04on par

Club America-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leon or draw

63%

Leon or Club America

74%

Draw or Club America

63%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

17%

Club America wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

74%

Leon 2+ goals

38%

Leon 3+ goals

15%

Club America 1+ goals

73%

Club America 2+ goals

38%

Club America 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

50%

Club America (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 6 matches

Club America away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.54 + Club America defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Club America attack 1.26 + Leon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Leon scores more

37%

level

26%

Club America scores more

37%

Leon at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Boselli

Leon · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

M. Boselli↳ F. Navarro

23'

Maximiliano Cerato

32'

Edson Álvarez

46'

C. Domínguez← D. Lainez

53'

A. Ibarra← M. Uribe

56'

Guido Rodríguez

64'

Agustin Marchesin

65'

M. BoselliPenalty

69'

H. Martín← C. Vargas

71'

J. Meneses← Y. Moreno

73'

Jorge Sánchez

78'

Jean Meneses

82'

H. Mascorro← M. Ceratto

84'

M. Herrera← P. Aquino

90'

Fernando Navarro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonClub

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots10

4Corners3

13Fouls20

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target2

4Off Target4

2Blocked4

9Inside Box6

1Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

302Total Passes401

236Accurate Passes314

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls20

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0